IMPACT OF FOOD INDUSTRY MARKUPS ON SECTORIAL BUSINESS CYCLE AND FOOD INFLATION IN POLAND

Abstract

The main goal of this paper was to examine relationships between markups, output, and food inflation in the Polish food sector in the period 2000–2013. Levels of the monopolistic markups were calculated as an inversed labor share in the output value with a modification regarding overhead labor, whereas value of production was used as an indicator of sectorial business cycle. In order to analyze the relationships in question such methods as cross-correlations, Granger test, and VAR analysis were employed. It turned out that markups have behaved procyclically regarding the sectorial business cycle, and can be regarded as a lagged indicator for output and as a predictor for food inflation. A positive impact of the markups on the food inflation is likely to be one of the reasons for relatively weak joint changes of output and inflation, what may affect responses of the Polish economy to the monetary policy measures.